2/21/2008
Primary "intensity" doesn't play out in November
Tuesday’s voting totals in my little polling place alone were scary. Of 1,225 votes cast, only 380 were cast for GOP candidates. And of that 380, only 204 were for John McCain. Not the overwhelming endorsement of Senator McCain I’d hoped to see – but more than that, reflective of the outpouring of support for the Democratic candidates on the ballot.
845 Democrat ballots counted. 522 for Obama, 321 Clinton, 2 Edwards.
380 GOP ballots counted. 204 for McCain, 132 Huckabee, 25 Paul, 9 Romney, 4 Giuliani, 2 Tancredo, 1 Hunter, 1 Thompson, 2 undesignated/write-in.
And lots of new, young voters. Who ever knows, but were I to guess, I’d say most were there having been “inspired” by Senator Obama.
I asked Mike Duncan, Chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC) about this perceived “Obama factor.” From a Journal Sentinel article on Tuesday's numbers"
Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor, said Tuesday's high Democratic turnout in the state is "very worrisome to the Republican Party," but noted that the November election will be decided "by very different dynamics."
Duncan isn't worried. He's looked at the last nine elections and notes that “intensity” coming out of a primary doesn’t translate to election success in November. He said one reason more people are participating on the other side is that the dems are spending a ton more money – and the GOP isn’t having to do that. Ok, that’s good.
Duncan saw Wisconsin’s primary as “very interesting” and as a preview of what’s to come. He sees in the Wisconsin campaign, the democrats pulling to the left, advocating more spending, bigger government and higher taxes; and he doesn't see them addressing national security.
While not assuming Obama would be the Democrats’ nominee, Duncan, the well-seasoned pol, said if the Illinois Senator does become the nominee, he has big questions to answer. Duncan sited a 45-minute Obama speech Tuesday that didn’t even mention Pakistan or Cuba. Is this man ready to be Commander in Chief? Is he ready to lead this country?
And so as not to slight Mrs. Clinton, Duncan slipped in the big question – can the American people trust her?
Duncan says the RNC – and associated GOP national campaign committees – is ready. Ready with data, ready with the needed bucks, ready with the critical organizations. And ready to put everything on the table to maintain the presidency and win back the Congress.
Great. Really. I want to believe it. I want to be part of it – and wish Mr. Duncan all the best. Still, I’d go with intensity anytime – and can’t wait for the GOP to show it.
For the record…
I asked Duncan about how he understood Senator McCain was going to deal with what will be ongoing questions of character, for example, about the Keating Five. Duncan said he would address specific questions as soon as the party had a nominee – which of course, it doesn’t yet officially have. In the absence of anything formal from Republican party folks, check out this NY Times article on Senator McCain and the character question. Interesting stuff. It lays many of the questions on the table - and if you read the whole thing, it seems begrudgingly as fair as you could get from the NY Times…
“He is essentially an honorable person,” said William P. Cheshire, a friend of Mr. McCain who as editorial page editor of The Arizona Republic defended him during the Keating Five scandal. “But he can be imprudent.”
And this…
Even as he has vowed to hold himself to the highest ethical standards, his confidence in his own integrity has sometimes seemed to blind him to potentially embarrassing conflicts of interest.
And more, including a Keating Five discussion. It’s very tough, but arguably doesn’t indict - and I think, surprisingly, may even defend the Senator and his convictions.
Update: 8:25 EST, 2/21: McCain absolutely denies Iseman story. Story turns on the Times as to decision to publish article across the front page. Read the Times story. Tell me what you think it says about McCain. I don't think the Times could or did prove anything.
COMMENTS
You should be happy McCain won as big as he did. It shows that when voters are conflicted between pro-life and small government conservatism, small govt more often wins the tie-breaker.
timbo (Thu Feb 21 05:41:23 2008)
How many Republicans voted for a Democrat? I suspect that was a big reason for the small Republican vote.
hank (Thu Feb 21 10:16:24 2008)
"Duncan sited a 45-minute Obama speech Tuesday that didn’t even mention Pakistan or Cuba. Is this man ready to be Commander in Chief? Is he ready to lead this country?"
Ok this is obviously a knee-jerk reaction on my part, but response is: perhaps Obama wants to be President of AMERICA and not President of the whole world?!
I was hoping that Ron Paul's candidacy would entice Americans to rethink this policeman-of-the-world role that we supposed to assume.
Stephen Flynn (Thu Feb 21 12:20:31 2008)
The wildly disparate turnouts between GOP and Dems shows that GOP'ers weren't going to waste their time voting when it wasn't going to matter.
I think Timbo is off a bit in his analysis. I voted for Ron Paul, so I got BOTH a solid pro-life candidate and someone who has never voted to raise taxes or add to the debt.
Brian Heyer (Thu Feb 21 09:07:13 2008)
Interesting take Stephen. I don't agree with it, but you got your point across - succinctly.
Jo E. (Thu Feb 21 3:10:16)
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