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3/26/2008
'Operation Chaos' working?
The Washington Post certainly doesn't think so. Rush Limbaugh's entertaining call for Republicans to vote Democratic may have driven millions to the polls, but the Post uses primary turnout numbers to claim phenomenal change coming on the horizon.
[Pennsylvania registration numbers are] consistent with the pattern since the beginning of the year: Democratic turnout in primaries and caucuses has topped Republican turnout, often by huge differences.
Well, I don't know about numbers cited for other states, but I know Wisconsin's numbers are badly skewed.
Some examples: In Wisconsin's 8th District, where Democrat Steve Kagen won a tight race in 2006 in what had been a GOP district, 127,000 Democrats turned out for the Feb. 19 primary, compared with 56,000 Republicans
Needless to say (at least for Wisconsin voters - who've been voting in open primaries since time immemorial - well, 1904) the numbers are bogus in trying to prove Democratic superiority. (In an interesting brief piece about an aberration in our open primary, Tom Still calls it "one of the few presidential contests in which voters are actually encouraged to color outside the partisan lines.") In holding the most open primary in the country, where a voter simply chose which column on the ballot to vote in, tens of thousands of 8th District Republicans 'crossed over' with zero effort to create a little froth amidst candidates Obama and Hillary.
.... What all this means is that the combination of dissatisfaction with President Bush, a diminished Republican brand and a compelling contest for the Democratic presidential nomination has created a huge pool of voters for the eventual nominee -- and other Democratic candidates -- to go after in the fall.
Now, artificial numbers in Wisconsin notwithstanding, Republicans surely must take all this new Democrat voter activity seriously.
COMMENTS
I think it's possible that there is a "Perfect Storm" brewing. High dissatisfaction with the current occupant coupled with a "throw the rascals out" mentality and high interest in the Clinton/Obama fracas will have Dems turning out in huge numbers in November all over the country.
You may have pegged one contributing factor that I'd have not considered. Rush and Billy O' may have gotten some marginal voters out as Dems for the first time.
grumps (Thu Mar 27 15:23:25 2008)
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