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4/23/2008
From Rep. Frank Lasee: Your Vote COUNTS
Yesterday in Pennsylvania, voters went to the polls to weigh in on the Democratic presidential nominee. The results will be interesting for many reasons. Pennsylvania has a different primary system than Wisconsin—there you must register in a party one month before the vote. No crossover voting is allowed at the polls. Since the first of the year, 133,000 people in Pennsylvania have changed their party affiliation to Democrat, presumably to weigh in on this presidential primary.
Hillary or Obama? Which of them will face John McCain in the general election in November?
It may not seem like it now, in November there will be lots more at stake than who is in the Oval office. Elections are important because the party in the majority chairs the committees and runs the agenda in Congress or a state legislature. No law can pass without both houses and the President acting on it.
All 435 seats of Congress are up for election in November. Congressional incumbents win 96% of the time. Betting on the re-election of a sitting U. S. Representative is a pretty safe bet. That is simply a fact of life in American politics.
The same thing goes for the Wisconsin State Supreme Court justices. Wisconsin recently voted out a sitting justice, the first time in more than forty years, and the fifth time in over 150 years of Supreme Courts elections. I wonder if it could happen again next April.
- The House of Representatives now consists of 233 Democrats, 198 Republicans and four vacancies.
Twenty-nine House Republicans have announced retirement so far, and only seven Democrats have announced retirement.
The numbers just don’t look good for the Republicans in Congress…
Senate terms are six years long, roughly one-third of the seats are up for re-election every two years. Thirty-five Senate seats will be up this fall, 23 are currently held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats. Of the 23 Republicans, six have already announced retirement. All 12 Democrats are presumed to be running for re-election.
Although the power of incumbency has been historically less important in the Senate races with75% of incumbents winning, incumbents are still a good bet.
- The Senate currently consists of 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and two Independents (Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who align themselves, and generally vote with, the Democrats.) This gives the Democrats a majority. They are in charge.
With at least six Republicans retiring, and no Democrats retiring yet, reversing majority of the Senate will be very difficult.
Here in Wisconsin, none of our eight members of Congress (5 Democrats and 3 Republicans) has announced retirement. The chances are greater than 90% that all eight will return in January. Neither Senator Feingold nor Senator Kohl’s seat is up for re-election this cycle, they will be up for re-election in 2010 and 2012 respectively.
Wisconsin’s 33 state senators have four-year terms. Sixteen seats are up for election this November, and 17 seats are up for election November two years from now. Democrats currently control the Wisconsin State Senate, 18-15. The seats that are up for election are currently divided evenly 8-8. Carol Roessler(R-Oshkosh) is the first and only, state senator to announce retirement so far. For the Republicans to take back the majority in the Senate would require keeping all of the Republican seats and gaining two currently Democratic seats.
Currently the 99 members of the state Assembly are split 52 Republicans to 47 Democrats. To date, five Assembly veterans -- two Democrats and three Republicans – have announced that they are not running again.
These state races will be important for Wisconsin’s future. Whether or not Wisconsin government creates socialized, committee run medical services, dramatically increases taxes (Wisconsin is already 7th highest in the nation), or greatly expand our existing generous welfare state, will in large part, depend on the outcome of these fall races in the Assembly.
Remember, the party with the majority sets the agenda.
Frank Lasee is a Republican and represents the 2nd Assembly District.
COMMENTS
I'd like to hear how Lieberman as an independent usually votes with the Democrats.
Thinking of old Joe I'm reminded of the joke (paraphrasing) that a Democrat voting for Joe Lieberman is like a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders.
A point which may be important is that all these Republican retirees may be trying to beat the new rules regarding who and who cannot get on the payroll of corporate America as their representative voice in government.
Lon Ponschock (Wed Apr 23 10:47:04 2008)
Thank you Rep. Lasee for speaking about the importance of the upcoming elections in terms of who controls the legislative agendas at the state and federal levels, and not dwelling on the presidential race. The President does not write legislation or control what bills get to the floor. We have to continue to educate people so they vote in November to get conservatives in office no matter what they think of who is on the top of the ticket. Voters need to look beyond one candidate and consider the power of the majority party to control the direction of government. Just look how the heady with power the environmentalists have been since the Democrats took control of Congress on 2006. Attitudes towards access to our natural resources, trade, the economy, government intervention in every aspect of our housing market correction, etc. are a direct result of the Dems controlling the agenda.
Phyl (Wed Apr 23 11:15:52 2008)
Jo, Phyl is wrong when he says the president has no control over the writing of legislation or getting it to the floor. The President can (and does) work with or directly write legislation with a cooperative congressman or senator. See the attached link for just one piece of legislation written by this administration.
What the friendly senator or Congressman can do with the legislation is another matter. If they are not in the majority, can they get the matter on the committee agenda then to the floor? Absolutely! The difference between now and pre-2006 is that the president got 100% of everything he wanted in pre-2006 and now he has to compromise, listen to other opinions, something he never had to do. There will be some legislation Congress will not take up in the waning days of the Bush administration but Congress has passed Bush directed items relating to national security pretty much as the president wanted. Whether they should have or not is a matter of debate but the fact remains the administration can get things done if it wants to work with congress instead of having congress be his rubber stamp as it was until January 2007.
The fact that Bush now can't get everything he wants now is a function of the democratic control of congress not an inability to introduce legislation.
dave allen (Thu Apr 24 06:42:10 2008)
Those Republican crossover votes are going to Hillary because she is viewed as easier for McCain to beat. The R's will be eating their strategy if Hillary becomes our next president.
I was a crossover voter too. I voted for Obama because he is the lesser of the two evils, though McCain is my first choice. IF Hillary wins we can thank Rush Limbaugh and his great wisdom.
Jack Lohman (Thu Apr 24 08:38:01 2008)
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