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5/23/2008
Mark Rahmlow: Assembly won't turn blue
Speculation has been running rampant - mostly among Democrats - that Gov. Jim Doyle will spend the next two years working with a legislature of the same party.
The outcome of the fall elections may well decide whether or not Doyle goes for a third term. With a united “rubberstamp” legislature, the governor could enact the rest of his “bumper sticker” policies. The Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee (ADCC) is appealing to liberal activists saying Democrats were only “621 votes” away from retaking the lower chamber in 2006. That rallying cry ignores some important evidence.
Voters were angry in 2006. They were mostly Republicans willing to sit home and teach their elected officials an important lesson about accountability. That anger has receded somewhat this year, and Republicans have an incredible opportunity to maintain and expand their majority in the State Assembly.
The ADCC’s claim is also dependent on evidence that Doyle won several Republican Assembly districts in 2006 on his way to another term. But Doyle is losing ground over the looming $2.4 billion GAAP deficit, an unconstitutional raid on the Patient’s Compensation Fund, and his use of the Frankenstein veto to increase the property tax levy. Those issues will be on the ballot this fall as Republicans contrast themselves against Democratic candidates.
In fact, the only issue that could have cost Assembly Republicans their majority in the Assembly is if the hospital tax had passed with Republican support. Fortunately, Speaker Mike Huebsch, R-West Salem, kept that tax out of the final bill. So expect the State Assembly to stay in the hands of the Grand ole Party.
It had been a little bewildering that it took so long for someone to step up to replace outgoing State Rep. Steve Wieckert (R-Appleton). Wieckert’s retirement came as a surprise for many supporters that fondly recalled his 1996 anti-tax, tough on crime campaign. Fortunately, former Appleton Alderman and radio personality Jo Egelhoff announced her candidacy. Egelhoff will campaign hard in that district and be an agent for change in Madison.
2006 stunned Republicans as Debi Towns fell to a liberal Democrat in the 43rd Assembly District. With John McCain at the top of the ticket, and a large Republican turnout in Walworth County, Towns should easily reclaim this seat she held for two terms. Towns has always championed education issues and lower taxes. That message will resonate against an opponent that supported a state budget that raised taxes and left a deficit.
Outagamie County Supv. Jim Steineke is running hard for the 5th Assembly District held by liberal State Rep. Tom Nelson. Nelson earned praise for drawing attention to the state budget stalemate by sleeping in the legislative chambers. Unfortunately, Nelson’s campaign also raised record amounts of money during that stretch according to the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign. Restoring integrity in government by banning legislative fundraising while the state budget is under consideration will be a potent theme in this campaign.
Longtime Democratic State Rep. Barbara Gronemus is retiring leaving open the possibility that Republicans will score a win in this district. Entrepreneur Dave Hegenbarth will have the resources to run a competitive grassroots campaign. Aided by a strong showing from John McCain, Hegenbarth’s campaign ought to remind voters that the expected $2.4 billion budget shortfall for 2009 needs a CEO of his stature at the table.
Finally, Mark Pocan (D-Madison) recently wrote that State Rep. Terry Musser’s (R-Black River Falls) retirement would be a pick up for Democrats. “Musser, a respected moderate, took shots at the GOP leadership on his way out, after they made a point of making his life miserable for sponsoring a bill to allow for emergency contraceptives for rape victims,” Pocan said. Perhaps someone forgot to tell Pocan about the “green beret” flap.
Pocan also makes that claim before a Republican announces to succeed Musser. This columnist recommends Black River Falls alderman Brad Rahmlow. But that’s just a personal bias, and cousin Brad probably isn’t interested.
Pocan and his cohorts can keep dreaming of a blue Assembly. But its safe to predict Republicans will not only hold the Assembly, but also gain a couple seats.
Rahmlow is a former Field Director for Tim Michels’ 2004 US Senate campaign.
COMMENTS
So did you predict that Tim Michels would win against Sen. Feingold? Did you predict that the Michels' cement business would fail?
mark (Fri May 23 22:01:42 2008)
Stop droning on about the budget and start talking about health care. Republicans underestimate the concern of Wisconsinites on this matter.
Tina Haffeman (Mon May 26 20:39:08 2008)
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