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6/3/2008
A mess of an election
Elections are dynamic: you can do everything right, cover all the bases, even be the best candidate. And in the end, still lose, because of something entirely beyond your control.
The Democrat presidential primary has taken this to a whole new level.
In a two-party race, both candidates are going to get…oh, let’s call it 30%. That’s the baseline. The trick is to get more of the remaining 40% than the other guy.
How to do it? Turnout. Attracting new voters. Reaching to the middle. That’s all pretty basic. Then there’s this: don’t get caught by a credible third-party candidate.
Or, rather, have the least credible third-party candidate possible running on your side of the spectrum.
Third candidates never win elections: they cause other candidates to lose. Count the examples: Ed Thompson prevented a Scott McCallum win in 2002. Ralph Nader did the same for Al Gore in 2000. Ross Perot in 1992. Teddy Roosevelt in 1912.
In every case, the third candidate placed a distant third. In every case, the second-place candidate might have won, had the third-placer not run in the first place.
We’ll see much the same thing happen this year, with a twist.
The Democrat candidate – whether it’s Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton – will have to face a credible opponent other than John McCain. Not a third-party candidate, though: a same-party candidate.
And that same-party candidate won’t even be on the ballot.
Whatever happens in the Democrat primary, a lot of Democrats are going to be bitter about it. Just spend a few minutes browsing the well-documented Clinton supporter fury at the DNC’s Rules Committee meeting over the weekend. They’re mad as hell, and they’re not taking it anymore:
“I've got news for all of you: McCain will be the next president of the United States.” “I’m done with the Democratic Party,” she added. “I’m an independent voter now.”
"Those idiot bosses in there have given me two winners in 40 years. And now they're going to tell us how people are voting, and take votes away? The party elite sucks." Democrats – hard core, lifelong, liberal Democrats – chanted “Let’s Go McCain!” at the Rules Committee meeting. They booed when Obama’s name was mentioned.
It all adds up to one thing: the Democrats' primary loser – probably Clinton – will continue to impact the Democrats' ballot, and not in a good way. She could throw the election to McCain – take votes away from Obama – without even being on the ballot.
She's about to become the most unusual spoiler candidate in (at least) modern election history.
And check out one of the first comments posted to that story:Interesting. I wonder how many of the Clinton's backers are also closet Republicans, just like Mrs. Clinton. Interesting, indeed. Like looking at one of our perpetually-disgruntled conservatives, RINO hunters, or Ron Paulians through a funhouse mirror.
Now: it's June. Long time, still, until November. Plenty of time for the Democrat base to pull back from the brink. Certainly Clinton won't encourage any kind of protest vote – to do so would ruin any higher ambitions she might still have (and we know she still has them). If she even seems like she's trying to undermine Obama, she'll get the blame for his loss.
Still, angry Clintonistas voting for McCain, or writing in Clinton, or staying home in November – just a percentage point here or there, in one or two states – would throw the win to McCain no matter what Clinton does between now and then.
And considering what we saw over the weekend…Democrats have a new dynamic to contend with, and it's good news for Republicans.
Lance Burri is a contributor to the Badger Blog Alliance and occasionally blogs on his own site as well.
COMMENTS
Fact-check, old friend - the incumbent president finished third in 1912, behind the third-party candidate.
Warren Bluhm (Wed Jun 04 11:41:29 2008)
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