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11/3/2008
Meyer: On conspiracy theories
Conspiracy theory: McCain was behind in the polls so Bush told his oil buddies to lower the price of gas to help out McCain.
So what's really happening? The oil company CEOs already know Obama is going to be the president and so they are lowering prices to avert the likelihood of windfall profits, taxation and price-gouging investigations. But since it has been alleged that the Republicans can fix every presidential election and have bribed officials of the voting machine manufacturers, neither the price of gasoline nor the poll results really matter much. If all else fails, we can still blame the infamous Bradley effect. And here’s another one. The consumption of gasoline has only dropped slightly, while oil prices have plunged, so that proves the price of oil was manipulated all along.
What about price elasticity, or how future expectations exacerbate the current trend?
I believe the futures markets are looking ahead to the possible impact of a world-wide recession on commodities, such as oil, and see declining demand going forward.
The whole phenomenon with people complaining about high energy prices reminds me a bit of a wise observation familiar to many of us:
"There are three types of people: those who make things happen, those who watch things happen, and those who ask what happened." Instead of being proactive and making adjustments in our lifestyles, too many of us just act like helpless sheep going to the slaughter, falling into one of the two latter categories. We can all employ similar strategies that the wealthy use, albeit on a smaller scale, to insulate ourselves or profit from swings in energy prices.
I am no speculator, but a couple winters ago, I made a modest investment in energy that paid my extra costs for gasoline and heating oil for the year. Tell me if you believe the price of oil is going back up, and I will give you a strategy. Tell me you're certain oil is going down, and I'll give you advice on how to play that scenario, also.
And if all else fails, is it the "Bradley Effect?" So if the alleged manipulation of fuel prices doesn't "fool" people, and the alleged fixing of voting doesn't work either, there is yet another important, insidious factor.
The Bradley Effect deals with the circumstances surrounding the California gubernatorial race in 1982. Mr. Tom Bradley was an African-American candidate for governor. The polls showed a close race, but he actually lost by several percentage points. It was postulated that voters feared that if they avoided expressing preference for the minority candidate, they might be deemed prejudiced. Therefore, they were dishonest in reporting their true selection, skewing the pre-election polls. It all seems like another ugly attempt to exaggerate the impact of latent racism.
If McCain pulls this election out, we are going to hear a lot of talk about that sort of thing. I guess we will know if any conspiracy theories were relevant factors before we eat breakfast Wednesday morning.
Robert E. Meyer, Fox Valley
COMMENTS
Yeah, yeah. But I'm going to fill up before the election.
Bradley effect? I think Bradley's backers simply got cocky and didn't show up at the polls. I don't think it had anything to do with the polls.
But I do wonder about the "cell phone" effect today, where 18yo's are not getting called and they typically are voting Democratic.
Jack Lohman (Mon Nov 03 07:52:41 2008)
The writer is from the Fox Valley and so I'll make a reply. (It has been a long dry spell during the tenure of 'the usual suspects' in FP during the campaign for 57th
Assembly.)
While I don't really know how the idea of conspiracy theories of the normal garden variety connect with this post I have a proposal for a new conspiracy after this election-- hell you can start today if you wish.
The proposal is to invest in local enterprise and know where your money is. This is called financial intimacy. It means knowing who your banker is, knowing how the institution is doing and divesting from things like 401k plans in favor of
financial instruments not dependent on bailouts.
I like to call this 'withdrawing your embassador from the United States.' It is a move toward independence not an anti-patriotic phrase. And it's also not connected with 1.) jingoistic "Palindromes" about who the real Americans are or 2.) the "black
helicopter Steves" of the world who fear the onslaught of some world order.
No, what this is about is thinking for yourself.
Back in the days when Toby Roth (former Congressional Representative for the 8th District) first introduced the 401k notion over actual benefits, the spin was that the employer-- the corporation-- would match dollars in the plan. While I have never had anything that looks like a 401k in my working or non working life, I'll
bet that the account managed by the worker individually was not done in the same manner as the matching dollars by the employer. This is just a guess of course.
Now that various pension plans and investments are in trouble it would (if it were possible) be beneficial to ask how this scheme is working out for the employer as opposed to the employee. But that would be another conspiracy theory.
I'm with Jack Lohman on investing in a tank of gas some time before midnight on Tuesday. Beyond that, start looking at your financial institutions for local
investment and self reliance.
Lon Ponschock (Mon Nov 03 09:00:41 2008)
You're lucky you didn't get involved with an IRA, Lon. I've lost $35K on mine in the recent bust, though hopefully it will come back. But can you imagine what we'd be saying today had Bush succeeded with putting social security in the stock market?
My suggestion: a mattress, though even the direction of the dollar is frightening.
Jack Lohman (Mon Nov 03 11:12:24 2008)
First of all, I don't have (and never had) penney one in a 401K, and don't intend to start now.
Jack, you say you've "lost $35K" in your IRA. Unless you're silly enough to "sell low and buy high" you haven't lost a penney - yet. If the messiah somehow stumbles into the White House with a Democrat House and Senate you may see your 401K treated just like Social Security. I really don't want Barney Fraud administering anything of value that belongs to me! The feds have done such a good job with my Social Security.
As for the stock market, It's been Wal-Mart on Wall Street for the past few weeks. I've found some great deals on stock I was watching, but hesitant to buy at the "normal" price. But then, I also realize that who ends up in the White House could put me in the red!
And the matress won't work unless we're on the Gold Standard (thanks a bunch, Jimmy Carter).
Duke (Mon Nov 03 13:59:04 2008)
I realize that it's just a paper loss so far, Duke, but what's wrong with buying high and selling low? I've been doing it for years! :-)
I do agree that there are some bargains out there if you know the market.
Jack Lohman (Mon Nov 03 17:50:55 2008)
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