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7/15/2009
Doyle & Commerce: Need to tell it like it is
Statistics can tell you anything you want them to. It was particularly disconcerting Sunday to read of Governor Doyle praising Wisconsin’s #1 manufacturing ranking – and on the other hand, an analysis proclaiming that “During the Doyle years, the state failed to create new jobs while descending to Alabama-level wages.”
So where do we stand?
In an interview with the Post-Crescent, Governor Doyle said:
As difficult as the economy is, Wisconsin is now the No. 1 manufacturing state in the country. We now have a higher percentage of our work force in manufacturing than any state in the country. A few years ago, we were, like, fifth. That says more about the four states ahead of us than it does about us. [Emphasis is mine.] Explaining more about the study to which the Governor refers, a June 26 Wisconsin State Journal editorial drooled:
Nowhere in the United States is manufacturing a stronger industry than in Wisconsin.
….Wisconsin took over the top spot in state manufacturing rankings last month, when measured by the percentage of nonfarm employment in manufacturing jobs. But how Wisconsin gained the top ranking is important: Its manufacturing employment declined but at a lower rate than that of previously top-ranked Indiana.
… As a result, Wisconsin is left with a shrinking manufacturing sector that is, relatively, the nation's strongest. (The Journal-Sentinel’s article in June was also helpful explaining WI’s relative manufacturing ranking among Midwest states.)
In contrast to the Doyle interview published Sunday, Tom Hefty and John Torinus, eminently qualified businessmen and business analysts, ripped the status of jobs and job growth in Wisconsin in an editorial appearing Sunday in both the Journal Sentinel and the Wisconsin State Journal. The editorial summarized a major piece written for the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute, “Wisconsin Flunks Its Economics Test.”
The surprise is that the sobering assessment transcends the usually polarized debate in Madison. From the left, right and center, the view is equally grim. Certainly, the policy recommendations differ among these analysts, but they share the same sense of worried urgency: Wisconsin has to do more to stoke its economy. So what if Wisconsin manufacturing jobs are a higher percent of its total jobs than other states? What is the quality of those manufacturing jobs – and more importantly, what is the quality of the jobs in the remaining 84.4% of jobs?
In their analysis, Hefty and Torinus concentrate on Wisconsin’s slowing job growth, a serious drop in relative wages and net outmigration of professionals and high-income earners. And what are these crusaders seemingly saying about Doyle’s claims of rosy manufacturing rankings?
The state’s economic-development effort, in short, lacks urgency and follow-through. The phlegmatic posture is encouraged by state officials, who go out of their way to emphasize the good news and ignore the bad.
Wisconsin’s fudging of its unemployment rate is a good example of ignoring bad news. Bad data does not always lead to bad policy, but it stifles any sense of public urgency or accountability in addressing the failures. Granted, the Doyle “Q & A” wasn’t meant to be a seminar in economics – but it’s definitely light on analysis. The Torinus/Hefty piece hits the nail on the head over and over again in analyzing Wisconsin’s economic growth problems and in offering serious solutions. No rose-colored glasses here. It’s a good read – and ought to be taken seriously by Doyle and his minions at Commerce.
Jo Egelhoff, FoxPolitics.net
COMMENTS
If it is true that WI has a high percentage of factory jobs, then it's going to be curtains for this state once the "carbon tax" is in place. We are already in hot water due to Jimbo's scorched-earth policies; join us at www.recalldoyle.com!
emily matthews (Fri Jul 17 12:13:55 2009)
Emily you are exactly right on.
Jo (Fri Jul 17 13:27:32 2009)
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