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Today's Blog: Time for the Guv to morph into Chris Christie
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    5/6/2010
    Why Obey's leaving and who will take his place

    Rep. Dave Obey had $1,397,033 cash on hand when his campaign last reported March 31, 2010. That’s a lot of bucks to leave laying on the table. And a chunk of influence. So what are Obey’s many options to do with those big bucks? For sure, he won’t be throwing them up against the Republican nominee in the 7th Congressional district. But he certainly can give it to charity, form a PAC, parse it out in capped contributions to progressive Dem candidates throughout the country or establish his own 501(c)(4) to compete with those self-same right-wing organizations sprouting up around the country. But that’s a whole separate study. Today’s news is the ton of commenting that went on in Wisconsin and Washington yesterday.

    Choose your poison or your passion….

    The Cap Times gathers quotes from Dems - Mayor Barrett through Wisconsin’s congressional delegation, to President Obama. Dems lament Obey’s decision to step down.

    Reid Ribble, as did others, registered his thoughts from the 8th 
    His decision marks a major sea change in both Wisconsin and in Washington. Perhaps the Congressman realized that the voters were no longer interested in massive health care reform packages, or cap-and-trade proposals, or so-called stimulus plans. They definitely are not supportive of our $14 trillion deficit.
    The Wausau Daily Herald captures the local reaction
    "We won't in my lifetime regain the influence he had in Washington," she said. "It takes years for someone to build up the power and stature in Congress. It won't be some dazzling freshman wielding that sort of influence, I can tell you that."
    Why did he do it? I buy what Obey told us himself – he’s darned tired, politics ain’t what they used to be and it simply isn’t worth it anymore.

    Christina Ruffini at CBS News captures Obey’s reasons well, shared via his press conference yesterday
    Obey said partisan politics and an increasingly hostile media are some of the reasons he has decided to leave Washington. But in the end, he said, "quite frankly, I am bone tired."

    …. "You may fight like the devil between the hours of nine and five but then you could go out and get a drink afterwards," he said. "I wish to God that era was not already as far away as it is today."

    …. He also said the prospect of going through another round of redistricting after the 2010 census, and all the inevitable political sniping that goes along with it, was just more than he could take.

    "I just don't want to have to deal with their stuff anymore, it's just that simple," he said.
    Good stuff from Politico too. Yes, perhaps the era of huge appropriations has passed.
    “…but admitted he feared another reapportionment fight in the next Congress and a shift in the public mood against the aggressive public investments which have been his trademark.
    Then there’s the question of who will take on the presumed GOP candidate Sean Duffy.

    Steve Eggleston does a great job considering it here.

    Binversie does it here, with similar good insights. 
    Logically, since he's coveted the seat for years, State Senate Majority Leader Russ Decker (D-Schofield) would make sense...if it weren't this year. Now he's got baggage from this past legislative session -- $5 Billion in new taxes for starters -- that would give off a stink and it will effect not only him, but all legislators from Northern Wisconsin as well.

    My early guess of who runs? A mayor or village president from the district.
    From the Politico piece:
    Democrats claim a deep bench in the sprawling district, with several state legislators expected to seriously consider jumping in. They include: state senators Pat Kreitlow, Julie Lassa, Russ Decker and Jim Holperin, along with state Reps. Donna Seidel, Ann Hraychuck and Amy Sue Vruwink.
    Lance Burri adds his two cents.
    Decker is the most interesting option. He’s currently the Senate Majority Leader, and one of the most powerful people in Wisconsin politics. That means he stands the best chance of raising the money he’d need, but also gives him the most to lose: he’s up for re-election this year, and in Wisconsin, you can only run for one office at a time. If he runs, it means he knows Senate Democrats are in for a beating this year, meaning he’ll be voted out of leadership, and he doesn’t want to face that music.

    Senator Pat Kreitlow is the next most interesting. He’s up for re-election this year, too, making it a win or go home decision. But he’s also considered one of the more vulnerable Democrats in the State Senate this year, so maybe he’ll make the jump to avoid a potential State Senate loss.

    …. All three Assembly Representatives are up for re-election, but Sen. Julie Lassa isn’t – she’d be up in 2012. So she could run and, if she loses, come right on back to the State Senate.
    The Hill story includes a few additional names.
    The early list of potential candidates includes state Sens. Julie Lassa and Pat Kreitlow, attorney Christine Bremmer, Marathon County Judge Greg Huber and state Reps. Donna Seidel, Ann Hraychuck and Amy Sue Vruwink.
    CQ Politics expands on Christine Bremer, nixes any Sen. Robert Jauch plans, and quotes Dem. state party chair Michael Tate as not expecting a primary. Hmmm.
    …Bremer, a former president of the Wausau School Board, said, “I won’t rule anything out, but today is a day for Dave Obey.

    …. One Democrat who took himself out of the running was state Sen. Robert Jauch, who noted he will be 65 this year — just a few years younger than the 71-year-old Obey, for whom Jauch worked in the 1970s. Jauch said he was “confident there will be a credible Democratic candidate who will receive widespread support” in what he described as “a working-class congressional district.”

    …. But the list of potential Democratic candidates almost certainly will be winnowed in the coming days, in part because Wisconsin has a late Sept. 14 primary — seven weeks before the Nov. 2 general election — and Democrats will want to rally behind one candidate.

    “I don’t expect to have a competitive primary up there,” Tate said. “I think that the Democrats will get together and have a conversation and that there will be a decision reached as to who’s the strongest candidate among themselves.”
    Stay tuned, for sure.

    Jo Egelhoff, FoxPolitics.net




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